They Used To Call Pre-Bunking Education

Some notes on the LA fires

Not sure if I’ve said here how much I really hate the term “pre-bunking”, the adoption of which was largely a way for psychologists to engage misinformation with educational interventions without having to read educational theory.

Anyway.

I ran about 25 dumb claims about the LA Fires through the Toulminator last night, and got the Toulmin analyses. I then took those and had ChatGPT identify the biggest knowledge gaps that are behind public misunderstandings about the fire and write positively framed statements of fact about them.

The idea of such interventions is not some nonsense about “vaccinating people against misinformation”. The idea is that if you close your own knowledge gaps about how fires happen, then it’s harder for people to exploit those knowledge gaps. It’s also easier for you to explain to others why certain explanations are unnecessary or wrong without waiting for a fact-check.

Anyway, this is a bit of an experiment on formulating informational interventions that improve the discourse environment rather than just play whack-a-mole.

What you should know about wildfires

(from most broadly impactful to more specific concerns):

1. Climate Change Intensifies Dryness and Wind Impacts

   • Understanding: Hotter, drier conditions—along with stronger, erratic winds—are making wildfires larger and more frequent. Even with good local policies, extreme weather can still overwhelm defenses.

   • Why It Matters: If you overlook how climate factors magnify fire risk, you may focus on minor policy details or conspiracy theories, rather than addressing the root environmental conditions driving the crisis.

2. Brush Clearance and Evac Plans Help, But Don’t Override Extreme Fire Weather

   • Understanding: Clearing brush and organizing evacuations are crucial, but they can’t fully halt a wind-driven fire under drought conditions; the flames can still spread rapidly.

   • Why It Matters: Without recognizing the power of severe weather, some blame these elements alone, missing the broader forces enabling fast, expansive fires.

3. Local Water vs. Large-Scale Environmental Allocations

   • Understanding: City hydrants and municipal reservoirs typically operate independently of agricultural or ecological water flows (such as those for fish habitats).

   • Why It Matters: Confusion here leads to rumors that things like “protecting a fish” or changing agricultural water policy deprives firefighters of water, when in truth, hydrant supply issues often stem from local system strain, not distant environmental policies.

4. Reservoir “Refilling” Isn’t Instant or Unlimited

   • Understanding: When firefighting crews draw water continuously for hours, local tanks can’t always replenish fast enough—pump capacity and infrastructure place limits on how quickly tanks refill.

   • Why It Matters: Lacking this knowledge fuels claims that officials “refused” to fill tanks, ignoring the technical reality that the system simply can’t keep up under extraordinary demand.

5. Aerial Fire Support Depends on Conditions

   • Understanding: High winds, heavy smoke, or poor visibility can ground helicopters and planes, forcing firefighters to rely heavily on ground-based hydrants.

   • Why It Matters: People may expect limitless water drops from the sky, but severe weather can ground aircraft—leading to even greater reliance on hydrant systems that are then strained by nonstop usage.

6. Local vs. Federal Roles in Firefighting

   • Understanding: Initial wildfire response usually comes from city/county/state agencies. The National Guard or federal resources join if those agencies request them or can’t cope.

   • Why It Matters: Believing an absence of National Guard troops means leadership negligence overlooks standard mutual-aid protocols—local entities typically manage first unless overwhelmed.

7. Arson Is Usually Not a Primary Driver

   • Understanding: Although arson does sometimes occur, official investigations usually identify more common ignition sources—such as downed power lines, human carelessness, natural conditions—as the true culprits behind wildfires. Moreover, while arson can start a fire, it rarely drives the extreme intensity seen in drought-prone areas.

     Why It Matters: Persistent rumors claiming wildfires are the result coordinated arson draw attention away from the real ignition triggers and the environmental factors that escalate fires in arid regions. This kind of misinformation hinders a broader understanding of wildfire behavior and can obstruct efforts to prepare for and mitigate future disasters.

Update:

I released the tool I’m using to do this as a GPT — information below: